First Conservative - Political Humor and Obamatudes

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last week called the possible launch of a North Korean ballistic missile “provocative.”  Following the North’s launch of the Taepodong 2 missile over Japanese airspace, President Obama called it a “provocative act.”  The world is waiting for Hillary and Obama to define what the North Korean action actually provoked.

One thing the launch provoked was a meeting of the UN Security Council.  Long a forum for supporting terrorists and rogue states, the Security Council will meet tomorrow to review Japanese concerns.  The Japanese at least went as far as to call the launch a “serious threat” to world peace.  So the missile launch at least provoked stronger language from Japan.  The Security Council will certainly issue a strongly worded statement, but little in the way of sanctions or meaningful action will accompany it.

By Tuesday of this week, most of the provocation should be over.  The North will have –apparently successfully – tested its first multi stage rocket capable of carrying a nuclear warhead multiple thousands of miles.  The UN and US will have done nothing.  The North will then continue development efforts so that it can sell missile and nuclear technology to other rogue nations such as Iran and Syria. This is their only source of future international exchange.

All this underscores President Obama’s current dilemma. While wanting to appear strong internationally, the North Koreans have called his bluff on the world stage.  Obama folded.  After the Japanese watched the thing fly over its territory, their strongest ally will resort to the usual words and statements of position.  History has shown that words and agreements with the North Koreans are worthless.  UN sanctions would have impact, but North Korea is already starving its own people.  Besides the Chinese are not going to participate in an action to sanction North Korea because it wants to avoid a flood of Korean refugees should things inside the DPRK get even worse.  The obvious action would have been to utilize American technology to shoot down the North’s missile as it violated Japanese airspace.  The DPRK relies on American and European aversion to confrontation to extort concessions from the west. 

Missile and nuclear programs are North Korea’s only salable products.  Should the North have attempted a military retaliation, US air power should have been employed to reduce the North Korean nuclear and missile facilities to rubble.  This would make doing business with North Korea very risky for Iran, Syria and others who would buy from it.  By allowing the North to build and now test one of these systems, the west must now contend with two additional problems – DPRK generated valuable data on missile delivery systems that will soon be available to Iran, and Communist strongman Kim Jong Il has been made stronger internally by appearing to stand up to the west.    
In a sense, Hillary and Obama were right…the launch was indeed a provocative act.  It provoked empty rhetoric in the US and at the Security Council.  Lack of action by these bodies will provoke North Korea to accelerate its nuclear and missile development programs.  The impact of a nuclear armed and delivery-capable North Korea has to be dealt with soon.

With rouge North Korea poised to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile this weekend, the real question is how allies – particularly the United States – will respond.  There seems little doubt that North Korea will go through with their test of the Taepodong missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead up to 5,000 kilometers, putting parts of Alaska and Hawaii within range.  At this point it would be a very difficult shot for the DPRK to put a missile onto US soil, but the real issue is – they are working in that direction. 

The United States through its diplomatic channels managed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have pronounced the imminent test “provocative.”  In Democrat diplomatic speak, this means ‘pretty please, please don’t do this.’  The word ‘provocative’ – if uttered by, say, Ronald Reagan – would have dictators in Granada, Cuba or wherever, truly taking notice.  Clinton’s words just caused a yawn in Pyongyang.   

Democrats and leftists worldwide seem determined to find a way different from making threats to get other nations to comply with international behavior standards.  This is a childish and dangerous dream.  Since Democrats probably attended public schools that failed to teach about how the Munich conference of 1938, they have become so enamored with diplomacy that they overlook one key point – occasionally, diplomacy simply doesn’t achieve a good outcome.   What then?  Diplomacy cannot work without a threat to one’s adversary, of credible force.

When confronted with instances where diplomacy fails, European nations simply start the process over again and recycle it indefinitely.  As in 1938, this provides rouge nations the opportunity to grow stronger.    The United States seems headed down this path with North Korea using silly language like “provocative.”

The Japanese have been trying to point out to anyone that will listen, that a North Korean missile will almost certainly overfly their sovereign territory.  The Japanese are now confronted with some difficult choices.  Like the Czechs in 1938, they can resist on their own by shooting the thing down using US technology which would open the possibility of having missiles fired directly at them.   They can accept the test and follow the European model of talking diplomacy, or figure out a way to buy off the North Koreans themselves.  Their US allies will not be any help.  Obama will be happy to watch the missile fly over Tokyo and then lead the chorus of outrage against it.  Leading a chorus of outrage is His greatest strength.

Real damage is being done to allied relationships.  Although the US has for years tried to compel Europeans and others to provide more resources for joint self defense, the effort was half-hearted.  When a nation is capable of defending itself, they wouldn’t need the US to back them up – at least not as frequently.   Unfortunately for the Japanese, a respectable military force is expensive and requires years to develop. 

The Japanese must decide whether or not to risk a major confrontation with North Korea essentially, alone and with fairly limited military means.  They cannot count on the United States to immediately back them up should Pyongyang do something foolish like fire an actual missile at them.  The Japanese however, realize that Obama’s diplomacy will not compel the North Koreans to cease their missile and nuclear weapons programs.   Clinton and Bush both failed in similar efforts.  The Japanese also realize that Obama will draw down US forces in Asia and elsewhere at the earliest opportunity – leaving allies even more vulnerable.  Shooting down any missile coming over their territory then is the only real Japanese option.  Failure to do so would be weak and would encourage DPRK to continue their programs until they could tip a missile with a nuclear warhead and improve guidance so that the thing could reliably hit what it was aimed at.  Bringing down the Tapodong 3 and courageously facing down the DPRK may prevent a much larger conflagration later.

Should North Korea respond by attacking the Japanese home islands with missiles, or the South Korean homeland,  the US would be compelled to respond with force – regardless of Obama’s aversion to it.  The DPRK would prefer to fight US forces in South Korea anyway.  Failure to use US forces to defend Japan and South Korea would make Obama look ridiculous on the world stage.  As Obama is enjoying a hero’s welcome in Europe, he could probably be counted on in the short term, to intervene at least to some degree.    As His weakness is causing this confrontation anyway, the Japanese would feel justified in provoking the conflict by defending Japanese sovereignty. 

Hitler managed to buy time in 1938 by getting France and the UK to sell out parts of Europe they didn’t own.  Being intimidated by the threat of military action, the allies contributed to a much larger conflict later in which the US had to intervene.   The Japanese are now facing the same choices with North Korea although her situation is compounded by the unreliability of her strongest ally.  Should Japan fail to stand up for her sovereignty at this time, the Japanese may have to commit much more to future defense as her enemies will certainly grow stronger.